· SpaceX | $33bn – SpaceX has just raised another $1bn to be an internet provider in the US. They are the current front runner, but lack the crucial ability to iterate to the market.SpaceX had a $1B valuation after 5 years from their Falcon 1 product, and $10B valuation after 10 years from their Falcon 9 product, and $33B valuation after 15 with their Starlink satellites. Relativity is on a similar trajectory with Terran 1 flying 5 years in ($1B valuation), Terran R flying less than 10 years in ($10B valuation), and expanding our printing tech to the entirety of Aerospace within the decade after ($30B+ valuation).
· Our baseline has been 5 years from forming the company (Dec 2015) to launch (Dec 2020). For comparison SpaceX started in May 2002, their first flight of Falcon 1 was in March 2006, but was not successful. Their first success was flight #4 of Falcon 1, in September of 2008.
· Blue Origin – Bezos doesn’t need the business as he owns everything on earth. CEO Tim worked at Blue Origin where he set up a $100m laser printing project on the side. This is much smaller scale printing than Relativity does and made Tim realize it was time to start a company to scale printing to an entire rocket.
· Rocket Labs and Vector Launch – They launch cube satellites that are loaf-of-bread-sized satellites and represent a $200-300m TAM market. By way of valuations, Vector is currently raising at a $300m valuation and has not launched anything yet. Rocket Lab has launched a rocket and has a $1.4BN valuation and a $200m order book.
· Virgin Orbit – They have a $1.5bn valuation, but based on what? Virgin Orbit has zero launches, the hope of launching rockets off the back of a 747, and zero signed notable contracts. Not to be confused with Virgin Galactic, the space tourism counterpart.
The US Government on Relativity Space:
Relativity has won government infrastructure partnerships valued at $274m (i.e free or at-cost resources). This includes the two launch sites, six-vehicle and engine test sites with NASA, a 220,000 square foot building with 80 ft ceilings, as well as government awards, contracts, and economic incentive packages.
This edge doesn’t stop there, with Relativity successfully pursuing all relevant branches of the US government in space:
The Department of Defense, US Air Force: Strong interest in paying to manifest demonstration payloads on our inaugural launch
Active discussions with every US government launch buyer representing ~$300M in annual opportunities
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA): $30-60M near-term opportunity
Space & Missile Center: $50-100M annual budget for small launches, and significantly more for top secret programs
National Reconnaissance Office: $40-80M annual budget for current programs but also funding small satellite constellations. Billions of dollars in black fund capital for top secret missions.
NASA: $30M annual budget for small launch, and hundreds of millions for development and satellite launch missions
Experienced Management, With a Track Record of Success:
The biggest achievement and validator of Relativity has been their ability to grow the size and quality of their engineering and executive team. CEO Tim’s excitement about the new hires matches his excitement about winning launch contracts